After Xenoblade Chronicles 3 was revealed in February, fans were pleasantly surprised to find out that the game was less than a year away. Initially, its release window was set for September, which was a very reasonable wait for a game that every Xenoblade Chronicles fan was hoping for, but wasn’t sure was coming soon. Monolith Software has been staffing up and expanding for a few years. With all of its work on Nintendo’s other open-world games, it hans't been entirely clear that Monolith was working on its major project as it said, or supporting Pokemon and/or Breath of the Wild 2. It’s now obvious that Monolith has been working on its next Xenoblade entry for quite some time.
Still, having a game be so complete that its launch can be moved up two months is a shock. Xenoblade Chronicles 3’s new July release date suggests that the game is deep in development. It could have been ready far in advance of its original September window, far enough that a push forward wouldn’t harm it. This is impressive considering that the game seems to be building off all the Xenoblade titles that came before it. Even more than that, being able to smoothly prepare an open-world project like Xenoblade as the COVID pandemic affects the industry is a stunning feat. The fact remains, however, that Xenoblade Chronicles 3 would have been ready to release in July or September, and its blunt move forward also suggests Nintendo has big plans for late in the year.
What We Know About Nintendo’s Outstanding Games
Now that August through December of 2022 is mostly free for Nintendo, the question remains what its plans for those months are. Pokemon Scarlet and Pokemon Violet are slated to be coming out late in 2022, probably in Pokemon’s typical November/December holiday slot. The animated Super Mario Bros. movie is also still dated for December 21. Aside from that, Splatoon 3 is the only other first-party Nintendo project with a defined window, that being summer 2022. At this point, fans aren’t sure if Splatoon 3’s true date will be revealed in a sudden trailer like Xenoblade 3’s was, or if Nintendo is holding off until its expected E3-adjacent Nintendo Direct.
With Breath of the Wild delayed to spring 2023, the only Nintendo games left to fill 2022 are the indefinitely delayed Advance Wars 1 + 2: Re-Boot Camp, Bayonetta 3, and Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope. These are all being worked on by third-party studios, and have all been given 2022 release windows.
Advance Wars will likely receive a firm release date shortly after current events pertaining to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine settle down, but the other two games remain mysteries. Some statements by Platinum Games developers have implied that Bayonetta 3 is far along, while the ongoing controversies and staff departures plaguing Ubisoft have likely slowed Mario + Rabbids’ development.
Nintendo’s Potential Plans For 2022’s Last Four Months
That still leaves some mystery over Nintendo's plans, and why it moved Xenoblade 3 to July. A reasonable explanation is that another game may take the game's original September slot. In particular, there has been a suspicious lack of firm details regarding the Splatoon 3 release date. If Nintendo is still finishing development, it may be released at the very end of summer, or even later in the year. While it feels like an obvious choice for August, Splatoon 3 could just as easily fall in September where Xenoblade 3 once was. Assuming Bayonetta 3 is almost ready, October would be a good place for that, and Mario + Rabbids could be delayed into early 2023.
This is largely under the assumption that Pokemon is intended to be Nintendo's major holiday game of 2022. The franchise has done so before, with the previous-gen Pokemon Sword and Shield titles releasing in November 2019. However, it's also possible that a new game could be in development with plans to announce it shortly before launch. This could be Metroid Prime 4, which would have an announcement and release schedule similar to Metroid Dread. It could also be something that fans don't know about yet. The next Nintendo Direct will likely make all of Nintendo's immediate plans clear, but it feels like the company is poised to end 2022 with a bang.
Xenoblade Chronicles 3 will be released on July 29, 2022, for Nintendo Switch.
