Transformers: Rise of the Beasts box office projections suggest the Paramount Pictures film could underperform or flop. There are multiple reasons for the studio to be concerned, including competition from Sony's Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and DC's The Flash.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts is the seventh installment of the live-action film series. The seventh Transformers live-action film follows Anthony Ramos' Noah Diaz and Dominique Fishback's Elena Wallace on a globe-trotting adventure with the Autobots amid a conflict between the Maximals, the Predacons, and the Terrorcons. While the plot sounds similar to previous financially-successful Transformers films, early tracking for Rise of the Beasts is more in line with recent box office flops.
According to Box Office Pro, Transformers: Rise of the Beats is projected to open with $30 million–$40 million for a $61 million–$90 million lifetime domestic total. Early tracking and pre-sales for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts are on par with Morbius, X-Men: Dark Phoenix, Terminator: Dark Fate, and other box office flops. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts tracking is comparable to the box office disaster Shazam 2, which bombed after earning a $133 million worldwide gross against a $110–$125 million production budget. As previously mentioned, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts also faces considerable competition in June from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Flash, which target the same demographic of older fans and young boys.
Paramount Pictures still has reasons to be optimistic about Transformers: Rise of the Beasts' box office prospects. As noted by Box Office Pro, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts trailer views are strong, the positive reception toward Bumblebee (which earned $468 million worldwide) could gain goodwill for Rise of the Beasts, and international markets could earn substantial box office income as it did with Bumblebee (73 percent of the worldwide total) and Transformers: The Last Knight (78 percent). However, the franchise has experienced diminishing returns recently, with Transformers: The Last Knight grossing a worldwide total of $605.4 million, which falls short of its predecessors (including over $1 billion for Dark of the Moon and Age of Extinction). Similarly, Bumblebee's $127.2 million total domestic gross was down 68% compared to Revenge of the Fallen's $402.1 million, and it was the fourth consecutive film in the franchise to decrease its domestic total.
Many fans believe Transformers is better off without Michael Bay, whose entries in the franchise were financially successful but panned by critics and a significant portion of audiences. While Bumblebee was well-received and arguably marked a new era for the Transformers films, the franchise's diminishing returns and early tracking for Rise of the Beasts suggest audiences have endured enough poor Transformers to give this newest entry a chance. If the film is good, perhaps early reviews can boost interest in Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, but time will tell.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts is scheduled to be released in theaters on June 9, 2023.
Source: Box Office Pro