For veteran Pokemon GO players, it's no secret that there are some complicated equations at play when it comes to the odds of catching a Pokemon after a successful Battle Raid. There's a base catch rate for each Pokemon and then odds can be improved by use of different Berries, by the accuracy of the throw, and even by putting some spin on it to create a curveball. All of these factors are very important to keep in mind during each catch attempt and it seems like the PoGO community number crunchers have just made a new discovery that truly changes the game.
Over the course of the last year, a group of Pokemon GO researchers have been conducting experiments and analyzing the results of more than 6,500 throws during Battle Raid encounters. The results further confirm much of what we already know, but also seem to identify a new mysterious catch bonus that has been theorized, but never proven or acknowledged by Niantic...
In short (without getting too far into the statistics and math), the research suggests that there is another catch multiplier that increases as Premier Balls are thrown. That means that players may have a great chance to catch a Pokemon when throwing their fifth Premier Ball than they did when throwing their first Premier Ball, for example.
"Considering only the results from the first throw of the encounter, we found a fitted multiplier near 1 (95% confidence interval of 0.82 – 1.19). This indicates that the catch rate formula accurately predicts the number of raid bosses caught on the first throw of the encounter. However, as researchers threw more balls, the fitted multiplier increased.³ In the analyses for throws 5 to 10, all the 95% confidence intervals excluded the expected value of 1, indicating that another multiplier must be involved in calculating the catch rate. We resampled the multipliers in this range 6,000 times, and only 17 (0.3%) were less than 1, providing strong evidence that this increase was not due to chance... This result means that for the exact same throw conditions (e.g. using a Golden Razz Berry and performing a Great Curveball Throw), you are more likely to catch the raid boss on the 10th throw of the encounter than the 1st. In contrast, the fitted multiplier does not appear to increase when trying to catch Pokémon in the Wild, from Lures, from Incense, or after Photobombs."
So, what does this mean for players? When it comes to limiting resource expenditure, it could be a pretty big deal. Players who are low on Golden Razz Berries may begin saving their Razz items for only the later throws of an attempt. That said, players who have an overabundance of the items should still continue using them for every throw since catches do happen on those earlier throws. As more data rolls in and players begin experimenting with new catch tactics, it will be very exciting to see how this information shifts the catch meta game for Battle Raid encounters.
In the coming weeks, we should learn more about what other events will be arriving during the rest of the Season of Discovery. Be sure to check back in the near future for more Pokemon GO strategy guides, news, and updates. Until then, good luck out there, trainers!
Pokemon GOÂ is available on Android and iOS.
Source: The Silph Road