The Switch has a huge installed base with both casual and hardcore players, which has been a boon for plenty of Nintendo's franchises. Metroid Dread broke franchise sales records soon after it released this month, and the same can be said for a number of games. Fire Emblem: Three Houses and Animal Crossing: New Horizons also set records, and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is the best-selling fighting game of all time. Pikmin 3 Deluxe is also at the top its series, and Pikmin 4 seems more likely as a result.
Rumors about Pikmin 4 have circulated since 2015 thanks to the occassional vague comment by Shigeru Miyamoto, but thus far different projects have released instead. A generally underwhelming spin-off called Hey! Pikmin released for 3DS in 2017, followed by Wii U port Pikmin 3 Deluxe in 2020. Pokemon GO developer Niantic is also working on a Pikmin mobile game, though details about its release window are sparse.
Given the series' infrequent releases, one wouldn't be remiss to think Pikmin 4 will wait for Nintendo's post-Switch console (whenever that might appear given it just put out the Switch OLED model). However, Kirby and the Forgotten Land being announced during the September 2021 Nintendo Direct continues a pattern that suggests it's possible to see another mainline Pikmin game soon amid its growing popularity.
Nintendo Loves Double-Dipping on Switch
Super Mario and The Legend of Zelda are arguably Nintendo's biggest franchises (not counting the Game Freak-developed Pokemon), so it's not uncommon to see multiple games in each console generation. Mario Galaxy and Galaxy 2 both released on the Wii, for example, meanwhile Ocarina of Time and Majora's Mask came out on N64. These also tend to get the most spin-offs, with Mario in particular out partying, go-karting, and more.
Thus, even if the potential scope of the project is larger than ever, it's not surprising to see a game like Breath of the Wild 2 in development. Especially considering the original game was a launch title, it only seems appropriate for Nintendo to work on another for the same console going on five years into its life. The same could be said for a game like Mario Party Superstars, the second in its franchise to release on Switch following 2018's Super Mario Party.
Kirby games also tend to come out at a rapid clip; two mainline entries released on 3DS with Triple Deluxe and Planet Robobot alongside half a dozen spin-offs, and this isn't uncommon for handheld consoles. Seeing multiple mainline Kirby games on home consoles is more rare, with Kirby 64: The Crystal Shards on N64 and Return to Dream Land on Wii standing alone. Seeing Kirby and the Forgotten Land announced after Star Allies is a good sign for this double-dipping pattern also seen via Splatoon and others.
Pikmin 4 Would Fit a Current Nintendo Zeitgeist
Kirby and the Forgotten Land's theming also offers good reason to suspect Pikmin 4 is still possible on Switch following Pikmin 3 Deluxe. Though Forgotten Land is notable for being the first full 3D title in the franchise, it also caught many fans' attention thanks to an evocative post-apocalyptic setting. Kirby wanders through the remnants of locations such as shopping malls, making the titular forgotten land appear more human than ever.
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild also went for a post-apocalyptic take on Hyrule; the style appears to be "in" right now at Nintendo. Pikmin has always flirted with that aesthetic, each game being set on Earth as seen by miniscule characters. Remnants of society appear all over without a single human making themselves known. In fact, Pikmin 2 was all about collecting discarded trash like bottle caps, seen as mysterious alien treasures to the Hocotatians.
Between Pikmin getting more attention than ever thanks to Pikmin 3 Deluxe and Niantic's mobile game, the pattern of Nintendo releasing second entries of series on Switch, and Pikmin's post-apocalyptic setting, it seems more likely than ever fans might get Pikmin 4 soon. If there are still a few more years left in the Switch's lifespan, hopefully something along those lines is announced sooner rather than later.
Pikmin 4 is reportedly in development.
