Highlights
- Bethesda has a rough outline for Fallout 5, suggesting they have long-term plans for the franchise beyond Starfield and The Elder Scrolls 6.
- There are hints that Fallout 5 may be set in post-apocalyptic San Francisco, based on previous games' references and Bethesda's foreshadowing techniques.
- Fallout 4 contains significant references to San Francisco, indicating that Bethesda wanted to implant the idea in players' minds as potential foreshadowing for Fallout 5.
With Bethesda's Starfield finally out the door, it presumably won't be too long before Bethesda is free to turn its attention to its other franchisees. Microsoft's FTC court case indicates The Elder Scrolls 6 won't be released until 2026 or later. Fallout 5 is on its way sometime after that, though it is likely still so far off that it's almost pointless to speculate as to exactly when.
However, just because the next Fallout is so many years away doesn't mean developers don't have plans for it. Todd Howard confirmed this in 2021, revealing that Bethesda has a rough outline of Fallout 5. The studio's plans for the next Fallout may go back further than that, with New Vegas and Fallout 4 hinting that the new game might take place in post-apocalyptic San Francisco.
Fallout: New Vegas Almost Was Fallout: San Francisco
The link between San Francisco and Fallout: New Vegas is admittedly weaker than the one between the city and Fallout 4. However, it may offer a possible window into just how long Bethesda has considered making a game set in San Francisco. An internet rumor maintains that Obsidian wanted to destroy San Francisco in New Vegas' backstory, but Bethesda stopped it. The truth seems to be that Black Isle Studios would have had the Enclave destroy San Francisco shortly after the events of Fallout 2. Of course, since that lore is from the canceled "Van Buren" version of Fallout 3, it isn't necessarily relevant to modern Fallout.
However, in the lead-up to Fallout: New Vegas' release, Obsidian Entertainment's CEO Feargus Urquhart revealed that the game wasn't originally going to take place in Vegas. Obsidian had pitched Bethesda a game set in "a certain city" but that Bethesda wanted to save that setting for something else, hinting that Bethesda's plans for Fallout 5 may go back a long time. Urquhart never revealed which city he was talking about, but San Francisco is a definite possibility.
It is also worth noting that New Vegas never references San Francisco despite the city being a significant location in Fallout 2. Fallout 2 locations like Vault City, New Reno, the NCR capital, Boneyard, Arroyo, The Den, Redding, Klamath, Broken Hills, Modoc, and Navarro all get at least one shout-out in Fallout: New Vegas. This makes the lack of San Francisco references conspicuous, but it would make sense if Obsidian was told to leave the city free for future use.
San Francisco References in Fallout 4
Some fans have noticed that Golden Gate Bridge appears in Fallout4's "Atomic Command" holotape game, alongside the Las Vegas sign, major DC landmarks, and Boston's Custom House Tower. However, the mini-game also includes the Seattle Space Needle, Mount Rushmore, St. Lewis Gateway Arch, and The Statue of Liberty, so the bridge's inclusion isn't necessarily significant.
That said, Fallout 4 contains far more significant references to San Francisco. Most of these relate to Conrad Kellog, the Institute henchman who sets the plot in motion by killing the player's spouse and kidnapping Shaun. During their investigation, players learn that the mercenary fancies rare cigars called San Francisco Sunsets.
Later, while examining Kellogg's memories in the Memory Den, players learn that Kellogg was a mercenary from the New California Republic. After making a name for himself, he drew the attention of the Shi, who gave him steady work as a guard and enforcer. He then got married and moved to San Francisco, and players can even see the Golden Gate Bridge in his memories.
Kellogg having worked for the Shi indicates they are likely still a factor in modern Fallout. Based in San Francisco's Chinatown, the Shi descend from the crew of a Chinese submarine who were left stranded after the Great War. A technological power comparable to Fallout 4's Institute, one of their endings in Fallout 2 sees the Shi emerge as a major power in California.
Meanwhile, the Shi's main rivals also appear in Fallout 4's DLC. The "Trip to the Stars" side quest in Nuka-World sees players encounter a kooky UFO cult called the Hubologists. While one group managed to migrate all the way to New England, the cult originates in Fallout 2's San Francisco, where they operate from the ruins of the Golden Gate Bridge. They also have members in the NCR. Cut Fallout 2 endings would have seen the cult destroyed by its disastrous attempts to rediscover space travel. However, Fallout 4: Nuka-World shows that the Hubologists are still around as of 2287.
Fallout 4's references to the Shi and inclusion of Hubologists may be just fun nods to the earlier games. Still, it's interesting that Fallout 4 specifically references San Francisco and San Francisco-based groups as often as it does. It's tempting to think that Bethesda wanted to implant the idea of San Francisco into players' minds as some kind of foreshadowing.
Bethesda's Pattern of Foreshadowing
This would not be the first time Bethesda used one game to introduce concepts for the next. For Example, NPCs in The Elder Scrolls 4: Oblivion will discuss rumors of wizards leading anti-imperial boycotts in the Summerset Isles. The wizards in question are presumably Skyrim's Thalmor, who used the chaos following the Oblivion Crisis to establish the Third Aldmeri Dominion.
Meanwhile, the Fallout 3 side quest "The Replicated Man" saw players investigating a runaway android. The quest introduces the Commonwealth, the Institute, the Railroad, Railroad mind wiping, and the human-passing androids, later called Synths. Fallout 3's Broken Steel and The Pitt DLCs also briefly reference the Commonwealth.
At the time, Oblivion's Altmer wizards and Fallout 3's Commonwealth might have seemed like nothing more than simple worldbuilding. However, fans now know that they were important pieces of foreshowing for the next game, and Fallout 4's references to San Francisco are much more prominent than either of those examples. Either Bethesda is setting Fallout 5 to take place in the Golden City, or the studio gave Fallout fans one heck of a red herring.