It can seem like every major superhero movie is destined for overwhelming success, regardless of what people think about it. The existence of comic book icons on the poster seems to be a guarantee. But, when something like Black Adam can make millions and still not feel like a smash hit, the parameters of success have changed.
At the time of writing, Black Adam has surpassed $250 million at the box office. It has a 40% on Rotten Tomatoes with an average rating of 5.1 out of 10. The film isn't enduring the critical beating of Batman v Superman, or the high praise of The Suicide Squad. It isn't reaping comical cash rewards like Wonder Woman, but it also isn't floundering at the box office like Wonder Woman 1984.
Black Adam cost around $200 million to make. That doesn't include the marketing budget, which just about anyone could attest must have been massive. Conventional wisdom suggests one should double the production budget for a semi-accurate look at the film's marketing expenses. Assuming an overall budget of $400 million, Black Adam is likely to make its money back. The question is whether it'll make a profit substantial enough to justify its expense. More and more, as blockbuster movie production grows more expensive, the old film model is out the window. Studios don't want to make a dozen movies with reasonable budgets throughout a year, make their money back along with a tidy profit, and create sequels for whichever entries did well. Studios want to make one movie that makes a billion dollars and Black Adam isn't that film.
One of the most damning metrics in modern blockbuster cinema is the much-maligned second-weekend drop-off. After a film's grand premiere and the four-day box office totals are in, there tends to be a catastrophic dip in sales over the following week. In the olden days, a movie would make a ton of money on opening weekend, then a little less every successive weekend until the film's theatrical run ends. Today, the most devoted fans and all the critics see the film during or before the opening weekend. That means that any unconvinced viewers, anyone who might have been even slightly on the fence about seeing the film will get to hear all their friend's opinions on social media and read all the reviews. Times are tough, movie tickets are expensive, and there's always more to watch in the comfort of our own homes, so, if the word of mouth is less than stellar, people are unlikely to seek it out.
Black Adam experienced a 59% drop-off in ticket sales on its second weekend. There is very little at the multiplex to compete with the film at the moment, so it remains in the first place, but that massive decrease remains consistent. Movies only get one opening weekend, and the impact of their first impression has weight. Fans used to have to turn to the newspaper and hope they covered the film they were interested in. Now the discerning viewer has a mountain of opinions to choose from every time a film hits the big screen. The critical consensus on Black Adam isn't overwhelmingly negative, it's solidly mixed. But, a lot of people consider anything short of rapturous praise to be a condemnation of a film's quality. The fan reaction to Black Adam has been generally positive. Granted there is a percentage of the fanbase that will applaud anything connected to the section of the franchise that everyone else hates, so their praise does more harm than good. Black Adam has suffered the wound of lackluster word of mouth, and that might keep it out of the realm of success it needs.
Imagine a world in which Black Adam had flopped. That world isn't this one, the film is doing fairly well, but imagine if it had massively underperformed. What would the repercussions have been? Fans know that when Dwayne Johnson signed on to portray Teth-Adam, he was originally set to be the villain in a Shazam! movie. He's still scheduled to fill that role, theoretically in the third entry in that franchise. Black Adam ends with the big reveal of the return of Henry Cavill as Superman. The film is deeply tied into the rest of the DCEU. Whether the film flopped or not, the character's presence is unstoppable. Of course Warner Bros. wanted this film to succeed, but, whether it surpasses expectations or falls short will probably have little to no impact on future DCEU plans.
Black Adam is, at best, a mild success at the moment. It has suffered the wrath of massively raised expectations and the slow death of poor word of mouth. DC and WB clearly expected the first superhero movie with The Rock to be a blockbuster smash hit, and they aren't getting what they wanted. Despite the film's mildly disappointing performance, the overall franchise probably won't change much. Making superhero movies today is simultaneously a surefire hit and a level of raised expectation that make failure likely. Black Adam is far from a failure, but it does demonstrate how even the most profitable idea might struggle in the world of blockbuster metrics.
