Avowed is the upcoming first-person fantasy RPG in development at Obsidian Entertainment, and based on its trailer, the game shares a lot in common with Bethesda's flagship fantasy franchise The Elder Scrolls. After Obsidian's The Outer Worlds seemed to take aim at Fallout's spot in the satirical sci-fi RPG market, many fans of the genre have been left wondering whether Bethesda or Obsidian will be able to redefine open-world first-person RPGs as gaming settles into a new console generation.
Obsidian Entertainment has a huge advantage in this regard — time. Based on everything known about Bethesda's current release schedule, Avowed is practically certain to get the drop on both Fallout 5, as well as a potential Fallout: New Vegas 2. This could give the studio a great shot to hit the ground running while Bethesda is forced to play catch-up. Here's why, and when, each of these games are likely to release, if at all.
Bethesda And Obsidian's Release Schedules
Quite a lot is known about Bethesda's release schedule, even though the specific release dates for both of its upcoming games have not been announced yet. Bethesda is currently working on Starfield, a space-set RPG and the studio's first new IP in over two decades. Very little has been confirmed about the game, though some images from Starfield's development reportedly leaked last year showing a character in a space suit, a ship, and a meter with CO2, Oxygen, and gravity on it.
The other project Bethesda has been confirmed to be working on is The Elder Scrolls 6. The game was announced at E3 back in 2018, but since then Bethesda has not confirmed anything about its setting or story. Nonetheless, it has been reported that The Elder Scrolls 6 will not release until after Starfield. This makes it likely that Starfield will be released at some point in the next three years, while Elder Scrolls fans may be waiting five or more years to return to Tamriel.
Fallout's Future And Obsidian's Opportunity
This development timeline makes the creation of a Bethesda-made Fallout 5 seem very unlikely during the early or mid-2020s. One leaker, however, has claimed that Fallout: New Vegas 2 could be on the way soon. Like the original Fallout: New Vegas, the development of this game would be outsourced to a third-party studio. Whether or not it would actually directly follow the events of the first New Vegas, or would be a spiritual successor as a Fallout spin-off game, has yet to be confirmed.
In short, this timeline means that, if there is going to be a new Fallout game sometime in the next five years, it's far more likely to be a game developed by a third-party than Bethesda's Fallout 5. However, while it has been reported to be in development by leaks, the fact that Fallout: New Vegas 2 has yet to be announced makes it likely to be in an earlier stage of development than Avowed.
This makes it very likely that Avowed will release before Fallout: New Vegas 2, and almost certain that Avowed will release before Fallout 5. While Avowed is a fantasy game and Fallout is science-fiction, the opportunity to release one of the initial first-person open-world RPGs of the new console generation could give Obsidian a head-start. Obsidian Entertainment's Avowed could certainly define fan expectations for the western RPG genre for this coming console generation, assuming Bethesda's Fallout and Elder Scrolls don't have anything to say about it.
Avowed is in development for PC and Xbox Series X/S.