Avatar: The Way of Water already had a tall task at the box office, being a follow-up to 2009's Avatar. While it was anticipated that the film would need to make a lot of money to cover its budget, director James Cameron just revealed the film would have to be the fourth or fifth biggest box office hit of all time just to break even.
Avatar: The Way of Water is the second film in the Avatar franchise, which began in 2009. In the 13 years since its release, Avatar has continued to grow its box office through continued re-releases over the years, which has left it as number one at the global box office even after all this time. Just one film made more money than most franchises, and with three more sequels, it was expected that the film would be a very lucrative franchise for 20th Century Studios, a subsidiary of Disney.
In an interview with GQ, director James Cameron refused to give a solid number for the budget of the film. He only said it was "very f****** expensive" when asked. Cameron even reportedly told Disney and 20th Century Studios that the sequel represented “the worst business case in movie history.” To Cameron's estimate, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”
Avatar: The Way of Water was already projected to earn less than its predecessor, at least at the domestic box office, meaning that the global intake of the film will have to do some heavy lifting. It's not an impossible task, but it does seem like a nail-biting prospect. Then again, making a sequel to one of the highest-grossing films of all time is always going to be difficult in terms of profit.
Some argue that Avatar: The Way of Water doesn't have the benefit of being unique the way the first film did. Many were not necessarily fans of the first film, which means not as many people might turn up to the theater to watch the sequel. The story may have to knock it out of the park to get viewers in their seats.
On the other hand, much of the first film's box office intake was fueled by Avatar's fantastic 3D viewing experience. The second film looks to be even more technically proficient and beautiful, and the aesthetics and beauty of Pandora may be enough to win over audiences once again. Avatar 2's box office was already going to be scrutinized, but now it's going to be a major source of interest surrounding the film.
Avatar: The Way of Water releases in theaters on December 16, 2022.
Source: GQ